This is an excerpt of a post published in Geopolitics Press. For regime change advocates in USG, what they need is dedicated and motivated armed groups that are driven by sectarian and/or ethnonationalist ideologies. USG can work with these armed groups to execute regime change in targeted nations, which usually brings to power US-backed dictatorships that commit human rights abuses. Should…

This is an excerpt of the post published in Geopolitics Press. On August 11, 2021, the Oromo Liberation Army (OLA) announced that it has entered into a military alliance with the Tigray Defense Forces (TDF) with OLA’s leader, Kumsa Diriba, expressing their shared goal as “overthrowing this government (GoE) militarily”…

This is an excerpt from this post published in Geopolitics-Press. C2FC is using Project Basma’s scheme to attack Ethiopia’s will for survival as a sovereign nation-state, besides priming it for either regime attenuation or regime change. Upcoming narratives will call on rebel coalition to execute regime change so as stabilize…

This is an excerpt from this post published in Geopolitics Press. Ethiopia’s limited use of offensive realism and restricted defensive realism has exposed it to sustained political warfare that is augmented by methods of fourth generation warfare (4GW), key among them being narrative framing, economic strangulation, and coercive diplomacy. Narrative framing has benefitted the TPLF and capacitated it to simultaneously achieve moral victory and spend little resources to inflict prohibitive cost damage on GoE.

This is an excerpt of this analysis posted in Geopolitics Press. Egypt fears GERD will turn millions of Egyptians into jobless climate migrants, which will weaken the power of the military-backed government, and expose Egypt to inflationary pressure and economic ruin. Ethiopia is committed to filling GERD and bringing its…

This is adapted from the post Scenario Generation, Muslim Brotherhood, and Electricity for Peace. Can Egypt-Ethiopia war cause the downfall of Abdel Fattah el-Sisi? If Egypt invades Ethiopia, it’s goal will be to prosecute a total war that will topple the Ethiopian government and bring to power a government friendly to Cairo. If Tigray secedes, then Egypt can secure rights to host military bases…

An updated and edited version has been published in Geopolitics.Press In the Tigray crisis, the Biden Administration and its European allies, with generous support from Egyptian, Tigrayan, and Kenyan military and intelligence institutions, have managed to bleed Ethiopia of financial and human resources and then secure withdrawal of ENDF from…

Here is the updated and expanded version of this article. — In 1870s, Khedive Ismail Pasha of Egypt ordered his Chief of Staff, William Wing Loring, to invade Ethiopia and bring the Abbay river basin under Egyptian control. This plan to control the Blue Nile was thwarted by the Tigrayan trio of Emperor Yohannes IV, Ras Woldemichael Solomon, and Ras Alula…